Risk assessments (RAs) are frequently conducted to assess the potential effect of process parameters (PPs) on product quality attributes (e.g., a critical quality attribute (CQA)). To evaluate the PPs criticality the risk priority number (RPN) for each PP is often calculated. This number is generated by the multiplication of three factors: severity, occurrence, and detectability. This mathematical operation may result in some potential errors due to the multiplication of ordinal scaled values and the assumption that the factors contribute equally to the PPs criticality. To avoid these misinterpretations and to assess the out of specification (OOS) probability of the drug substance, we present a novel and straightforward mathematical algorithm. This algorithm quantitatively describes the PPs effect on each CQA assessed within the RA. The transcription of severity and occurrence to model effect sizes and parameters distribution are the key elements of the herein developed approach. This approach can be applied to any conventional RA within the biopharmaceutical industry. We demonstrate that severity and occurrence contribute differently to the PP criticality and compare these results with the RPN number. Detectability is used in a final step to precisely sort the contribution of each factor. To illustrate, we show the misinterpretation risk of the PP critically by using the conventional RPN approach.
Keywords: OOS estimation; integrated process modeling; occurrence contribution; potential critical process parameter (pCPP) assessment; process knowledge; severity contribution; simulation based on risk assessment.