Drivers of 30- and 90-day Postoperative Death After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation for Esophageal Cancer

Abstract

Background: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation, followed by esophagectomy, is a standard of care for locally advanced esophageal cancers. The ChemoRadiOtherapy plus Surgery versus Surgery alone (CROSS) trial reported a 30-day mortality rate of 6%. We sought to evaluate 30- and 90-day mortality in similar patients in the United States and identify predictors of higher mortality rates.

Methods: The National Cancer Database was used to identify patients with cT3-4/N+ esophageal cancers treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by esophagectomy. Bivariate univariable and multivariable regression analysis was used to identify predictors of 30- and 90-day mortality.

Results: We identified 7691 patients. Readmission within 30 days of surgery occurred in 6.0% of patients. Mortality was 2.9% at 30 days and 7.2% at 90 days. Positive surgical margins conferred a more than doubled risk of 30- and 90-day mortality, 5.5% vs 2.7% and 14.6% vs 6.8% (both P < .001). Facility surgical volume impacted 30-day mortality, whereas readmission was associated with 90-day mortality, both exceeding 10% (P = .004 and P = .001, respectively). In patients undergoing minimally invasive surgery converted to open, 90-day mortality was 12.1% (P < .01). For patients 69 years and older, 90-day mortality was also 12.1% (P < .001). Patients who underwent esophagectomy more than 45 days from completion of chemoradiation also had higher 90-day mortality at 8.3% vs 6.2% (P < .001).

Conclusions: Postoperative death at 30 and 90 days after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy appears to be on par with randomized data. Positive surgical margins, squamous cell carcinomas, age 69 and older, readmission within 30 days, and conversion from a minimally invasive operation to an open operation all carry a 90-day mortality risk exceeding 10%.