Probabilistic temporal prediction of the deaths caused by traffic in Colombia. Mortality caused by traffic prediction

Abstract

Background: from probability theory and probabilistic random walk, predictions about the quantity of cases of a given phenomenon for certain year, such as epidemics of dengue, have been previously obtained with results close to 100% in precision.

Objective: To confirm the applicability of a methodology based on probability and probabilistic random walk to predict the dynamics of deaths from road traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010.

Methodology: through the development of a total probability space that analyses the probabilistic behaviour of augments and decreases observed in the variation of the lengths of the death rates caused by traffic in Colombia from 2004 to 2009, the most likely event for 2010 was established for predicting the rate of deaths for that year.

Results: The predicted rate of deaths caused by traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010 was 14.88 with the methodology. When this value is compared with the value reported by national statistics, which was a rate of 12.9, a precision of 86.6% with the prediction was achieved.

Conclusions: the applicability of the developed methodology to predict the dynamic behaviour of deaths caused by traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010 by means of a probabilistic random walk was confirmed with a good precision, suggesting that this methodology could be useful to verify the efficacy of national road safety strategies implemented to reduce mortality rates.

Keywords: Mortality; Probability; Random walk; Traffic.