Investigating the causes of increased 20th-century fall precipitation over the southeastern United States

Daniel A Bishop; A Park Williams; Richard Seager; Arlene M Fiore; Benjamin I Cook; Justin S Mankin; Deepti Singh; Jason E Smerdon; Mukund P Rao

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0244.1

Investigating the causes of increased 20^th-century fall precipitation over the southeastern United States

J Clim. 2018;32(2):575-590. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0244.1. Epub 2018 Dec 28.

Authors

Daniel A Bishop^{1

2}, A Park Williams¹, Richard Seager¹, Arlene M Fiore^{1

2}, Benjamin I Cook^{1

3}, Justin S Mankin^{1

3

4}, Deepti Singh^{1

5}, Jason E Smerdon¹, Mukund P Rao^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
² Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
³ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
⁴ Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA.
⁵ School of the Environment, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA 98686, USA.

Abstract

Much of the eastern United States (US) experienced increased precipitation over the 20^th century. Characterizing these trends and their causes is critical for assessing future hydroclimate risks. Here, US precipitation trends are analyzed during 1895-2016, revealing that fall precipitation in the southeastern region north of the Gulf of Mexico (SE-Gulf) increased by nearly 40%, primarily increasing after the mid-1900s. As fall is the climatological dry season in the SE-Gulf and precipitation in other seasons changed insignificantly, the seasonal precipitation cycle diminished substantially. The increase in SE-Gulf fall precipitation was caused by increased southerly moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, which was almost entirely driven by stronger winds associated with enhanced anticyclonic circulation west of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and not by increases in specific humidity. Atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs and fully-coupled models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing do not robustly simulate 20^th-century fall wetting in the SE-Gulf. SST-forced atmospheric models do simulate an intensified anticyclonic low-level circulation around the NASH, but the modeled intensification occurred farther west than observed. CMIP5 analyses suggest an increased likelihood of positive SE-Gulf fall precipitation trends given historical and future GHG forcing. Nevertheless, individual model simulations (both SST-forced and fully-coupled) only very rarely produce the observed magnitude of the SE-Gulf fall precipitation trend. Further research into model representation of the western ridge of the fall NASH is needed, which will help us better predict whether 20^th-century increases in SE-Gulf fall precipitation will persist into the future.

Keywords: drought; hydroclimate; moisture transport; pluvial; subtropical High.

Abstract

Grants and funding