Aim: With increasing lifespans, patients requiring a pacemaker are older than they were in the past. Data regarding all-cause mortality in older patients implanted with a pacemaker are scarce. As physical activity is associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality, we investigated whether daily physical activity time, expressed as the activity rate determined by pacemakers, can predict all-cause mortality in older patients (aged ≥75 years) with a pacemaker.
Methods: We retrospectively investigated the baseline characteristics, echocardiographic indices, laboratory data and pacemaker parameters of 107 consecutive older patients with a newly implanted pacemaker at our hospital (age 83.8 ± 5.0 years; 54.2% men). The study end-point was all-cause mortality.
Results: During the follow-up period (mean 3.0 years), 21 cases of all-cause death were reported. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for activity rate to predict all-cause mortality was 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.92, P < 0.001). An activity rate of 3.4% (50 min/day) had a sensitivity of 86.0% and a specificity of 66.7% for predicting all-cause mortality. The survival rate was significantly higher among patients with an activity rate ≥3.4% than among those with an activity rate <3.4% (log-rank, P < 0.001). A multivariate Cox regression analysis identified low activity rates as a predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 15.0, 95% confidence interval 4.29-52.6; P < 0.001).
Conclusions: Low activity rates appear to be a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in older patients with a pacemaker. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; 20: 106-111.
Keywords: elderly; mortality; pacemakers; physical activity.
© 2019 Japan Geriatrics Society.