The effect of bigger human bodies on the future global calorie requirements

PLoS One. 2019 Dec 4;14(12):e0223188. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0223188. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

Existing studies show how population growth and rising incomes will cause a massive increase in the future global demand for food. We add to the literature by estimating the potential effect of increases in human weight, caused by rising BMI and height, on future calorie requirements. Instead of using a market based approach, the estimations are solely based on human energy requirements for maintenance of weight. We develop four different scenarios to show the effect of increases in human height and BMI. In a world where the weight per age-sex group would stay stable, we project calorie requirements to increases by 61.05 percent between 2010 and 2100. Increases in BMI and height could add another 18.73 percentage points to this. This additional increase amounts to more than the combined calorie requirements of India and Nigeria in 2010. These increases would particularly affect Sub-Saharan African countries, which will already face massively rising calorie requirements due to the high population growth. The stark regional differences call for policies that increase food access in currently economically weak regions. Such policies should shift consumption away from energy dense foods that promote overweight and obesity, to avoid the direct burden associated with these conditions and reduce the increases in required calories. Supplying insufficient calories would not solve the problem but cause malnutrition in populations with weak access to food. As malnutrition is not reducing but promoting rises in BMI levels, this might even aggravate the situation.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Body Mass Index
  • Body Weight
  • Energy Intake*
  • Female
  • Global Health
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nutritional Requirements*
  • Obesity / physiopathology*
  • Overweight / physiopathology*
  • Young Adult

Grants and funding

LD gratefully acknowledges funding from the German Research Foundation (http://www.dfg.de/en/) through the Research Training Group 1666 "Global Food" for the main writing period and the consecutive support of the long-term strategic donors to the World Vegetable Center: Republic of China (Taiwan), UK aid from the UK government, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), Germany, Thailand, Philippines, Korea, and Japan. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.