Dengue transmission: mathematical model with discrete time delays and estimation of the reproduction number

J Biol Dyn. 2019 Dec;13(1):1-25. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2018.1562572.

Abstract

In this paper, we establish a mathematical model with two delays to reflect the intrinsic and extrinsic incubation periods of virus in dengue transmission. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model is defined. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is stable when [Formula: see text] and the positive equilibrium is stable when [Formula: see text]. Next, we derive an estimation formula for the reproduction number [Formula: see text] when the human population is partially susceptible to dengue. As an application, the [Formula: see text] values of dengue transmission in Singapore in the years 2013-2015 are estimated. Our estimation method can be applied to estimating [Formula: see text] of other infectious diseases, especially when the human population is not completely susceptible to the disease.

Keywords: Dengue transmission; delay; estimation; mathematical model; reproduction number; stability.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number*
  • Dengue / epidemiology
  • Dengue / transmission*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Singapore / epidemiology
  • Time Factors