The North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease-Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Score Accurately Predicts Survival: An External Validation Using a National Cohort

Abstract

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries high short-term mortality. The North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease (NACSELD)-ACLF score, positive if ≥2 organ failures are present, is a bedside tool that predicts short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. However, it was created using major liver referral centers, where a minority of patients with cirrhosis are hospitalized. Therefore, this study used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative database, from 2005 to 2014 to externally validate the NACSELD-ACLF score in a cohort of patients with decompensated cirrhosis who were identified by a validated algorithm. Organ failures were identified using diagnosis codes. The primary objective was to evaluate the association between the NACSELD-ACLF score and inpatient mortality, whereas secondary objectives compared outcomes depending on presence of infection or hospitalization at a transplant center. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compare outcomes, and area under the curve was calculated. There were 1,523,478 discharges that were included with 106,634 (7.0%) having a positive NACSELD-ACLF score. Patients were a mean 58 years old, and a majority were white men. Infection was present in 33.7% of the sample. Inpatient survival decreased with each organ failure and if infection was present. Patients with the NACSELD-ACLF score had significantly lower inpatient survival on crude (94% versus 48%; P < 0.001) and multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR], 0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.07-0.08) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77 (95% CI, 0.77-0.78). Liver transplant centers had clinically similar but significantly better survival at each organ failure, in patients with the NACSELD-ACLF score, and on multivariate analysis (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22). Using a national cohort, our study validated the NACSELD-ACLF score as an excellent, simple bedside tool to predict short-term survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.