A Bayesian Phase I/II Trial Design for Immunotherapy

J Am Stat Assoc. 2018;113(523):1016-1027. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2017.1383260. Epub 2018 Jun 28.

Abstract

Immunotherapy is an innovative treatment approach that stimulates a patient's immune system to fight cancer. It demonstrates characteristics distinct from conventional chemotherapy and stands to revolutionize cancer treatment. We propose a Bayesian phase I/II dosefinding design that incorporates the unique features of immunotherapy by simultaneously considering three outcomes: immune response, toxicity and efficacy. The objective is to identify the biologically optimal dose, defined as the dose with the highest desirability in the risk-benefit tradeoff. An Emax model is utilized to describe the marginal distribution of the immune response. Conditional on the immune response, we jointly model toxicity and efficacy using a latent variable approach. Using the accumulating data, we adaptively randomize patients to experimental doses based on the continuously updated model estimates. A simulation study shows that our proposed design has good operating characteristics in terms of selecting the target dose and allocating patients to the target dose.

Keywords: Bayesian adaptive design; Immunotherapy; dose finding; immune response; phase I/II trial; risk-benefit tradeoff.