In the Strait of Sicily (SoS), a wide passage of the Mediterranean Sea, Parapenaeus longirostris, (Lucas, 1846; DPS hereafter) is the main target species of trawl fisheries, with an estimated annual market value of about 80 million euro. The exploitation of this resource is shared between Italian, Tunisian and Maltese bottom trawlers and its management raises social, economic and environmental interests. Recent stock assessment revealed high fishing mortalities and low size at first capture, thus promoting the adoption of a strategic plan for a sustainable management. However, the current knowledge of the geographical boundaries of the stock, supporting the implementation of such management plan is still poor. In this respect, under different hydrodynamic regimes, particle-tracking modelling was used to explore connectivity between both, known and unexplored, spawning and nursery areas of DPS in the SoS. Ensembles scenarios derived by model outcomes displayed decadal changes in connectivity between spawning and nursery areas in the north side of the SoS, hence confirming the presence of a single stock in this area. Expanding the area of investigation, the model results showed weak connectivity between spawning ground in the north side of SoS and nurseries on the African shelf-break. This method could support the spatial management of the stock, such as the protection of the nursery and spawning areas, by providing estimates of how connectivity is influenced by hydrodynamic regimes at different temporal and spatial scales.