Whether the Validation of the Predictive Potential of Toxicity Models is a Solved Task?

Abstract

Different kinds of biological activities are defined by complex biochemical interactions, which are termed as a "mathematical function" not only of the molecular structure but also for some additional circumstances, such as physicochemical conditions, interactions via energy and information effects between a substance and organisms, organs, cells. These circumstances lead to the great complexity of prediction for biochemical endpoints, since all "details" of corresponding phenomena are practically unavailable for the accurate registration and analysis. Researchers have not a possibility to carry out and analyse all possible ways of the biochemical interactions, which define toxicological or therapeutically attractive effects via direct experiment. Consequently, a compromise, i.e. the development of predictive models of the above phenomena, becomes necessary. However, the estimation of the predictive potential of these models remains a task that is solved only partially. This mini-review presents a collection of attempts to be used for the above-mentioned task, two special statistical indices are proposed, which may be a measure of the predictive potential of models. These indices are (i) Index of Ideality of Correlation; and (ii) Correlation Contradiction Index.

Keywords: CORAL software; Correlation contradiction index; Index of ideality of correlation; Monte Carlo method; QSPR/QSAR; Validation..