The persistence and distribution of species under changing climates can be affected by both direct effects of the environment and indirect effects via biotic interactions. However, the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects on recruitment stages is poorly understood. We conducted a manipulative experiment to test the multiway interaction of direct and competition-mediated effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics. Following stand-replacing fire in California mixed-conifer forest, we seeded two conifer species, Pinus ponderosa and Abies concolor, in two consecutive years, one relatively normal and the other with an unusually wet and snowy winter followed by a hot summer. We additionally manipulated snow amount and competitive environment for both years. We found the effects of the snowpack treatment were contingent upon other abiotic factors (year of seeding) and biotic factors (shrub competition). Under ambient snowpack, shrubs reduced recruitment of P. ponderosa seedlings, but this negative effect disappeared with reduced snowpack. Additionally, the effects of shrubs on seedlings differed between cohorts and by life stage. In a warmer future, decreased snowpack may increase seedling emergence, but hotter and drier summers will decrease seedling survival; the effects of shrubs on conifers may become less negative as temperatures increase.
Keywords: Climate change; Fire; Interannual variation; Pinus ponderosa; Year effects.