Changing trends in viral hepatitis mortality in East and Southeast Asia between 1987 and 2015 and its prediction until 2030

Abstract

Background & aims: Trends in long-term mortality rates for viral hepatitis in East and Southeast Asia have been rarely reported. The aim of our study was to explore the long-term trends in viral hepatitis mortality rates in East and Southeast Asian countries between 1987 and 2015 and provide predictions of mortality to 2030.

Methods: We obtained viral hepatitis mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database for six East and Southeast Asian countries between 1987 and 2015. We produced choropleth maps of viral hepatitis mortality rates in 1987 and 2015 in East and Southeast Asia to illustrate geographic variations. We made predictions of mortality rates for each included country until the year 2030 using a series of joinpoint models.

Results: Viral hepatitis mortality rates declined in China (the average annual percent change (AAPC) = -5.1%, 95% CI: -7.5, -2.6), Singapore (AAPC = -5.4%, 95% CI: -7.5, -3.2), and the Philippines (AAPC = -3.4%, 95% CI: -4.9, -1.8). In contrast, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia have experienced increasing trends in mortality rates, followed by decreasing trends. Our predictions indicate that all countries will experience slight to moderate downward trends until 2030.

Conclusion: Favourable decreasing trends have been noted in East and Southeast Asian countries, which may not only inform the control and management of viral hepatitis in this region but also guide the prevention of viral hepatitis deaths in another region with a similar viral hepatitis epidemic.

Keywords: East and Southeast Asia; mortality rate; secular trends; viral hepatitis.