Transmission Dynamics and Control Mechanisms of Vector-Borne Diseases with Active and Passive Movements Between Urban and Satellite Cities

Bull Math Biol. 2019 Nov;81(11):4518-4563. doi: 10.1007/s11538-019-00671-4. Epub 2019 Nov 18.

Abstract

A metapopulation model which explicitly integrates vector-borne and sexual transmission of an epidemic disease with passive and active movements between an urban city and a satellite city is formulated and analysed. The basic reproduction number of the disease is explicitly determined as a combination of sexual and vector-borne transmission parameters. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the disease is primarily transmitted via the vector-borne mode, rather than via sexual transmission, and that sexual transmission by itself may not initiate or sustain an outbreak. Also, increasing the population movements from one city to the other leads to an increase in the basic reproduction number of the later city but a decrease in the basic reproduction number of the former city. The influence of other significant parameters is also investigated via the analysis of suitable partial rank correlation coefficients. After gauging the effects of mobility, we explore the potential effects of optimal control strategies relying upon several distinct restrictions on population movement.

Keywords: Control mechanism; Metapopulation model; Passive mobility; Sexual transmission; Vector-borne disease.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • Cities
  • Communicable Diseases, Imported / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases, Imported / prevention & control
  • Communicable Diseases, Imported / transmission
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Vectors
  • Endemic Diseases / statistics & numerical data
  • Epidemics / prevention & control
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Dynamics / statistics & numerical data
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases / epidemiology
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases / prevention & control
  • Sexually Transmitted Diseases / transmission
  • Travel
  • Travel-Related Illness
  • Urban Population / statistics & numerical data
  • Vector Borne Diseases / epidemiology
  • Vector Borne Diseases / prevention & control*
  • Vector Borne Diseases / transmission*