Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January-September 2019

Kenji Mizumoto; Amna Tariq; Kimberlyn Roosa; Jun Kong; Ping Yan; Gerardo Chowell

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.42.1900588

Spatial variability in the reproduction number of Ebola virus disease, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January-September 2019

Euro Surveill. 2019 Oct;24(42):1900588. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.42.1900588.

Authors

Kenji Mizumoto^{1

2

3}, Amna Tariq³, Kimberlyn Roosa³, Jun Kong^{4

5

6}, Ping Yan⁷, Gerardo Chowell^{3

8}

Affiliations

¹ Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
² Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
³ Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
⁴ Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
⁵ Department of Computer Science, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
⁶ Department of Computer Science, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
⁷ Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
⁸ Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.

PMID: 31640841
PMCID: PMC6807257
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.42.1900588

Abstract

The ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic (August 2018─October 2019) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has been exacerbated by deliberate attacks on healthcare workers despite vaccination efforts. Using a mathematical/statistical modelling framework, we present the quantified effective reproduction number (R_t) at national and regional levels as at 29 September. The weekly trend in R_t displays fluctuations while our recent national-level R_t falls slightly above 1.0 with substantial uncertainty, which suggests improvements in epidemic control.

Keywords: Congo; Reproduction number; conflict; ebola; epidemic; next generation matrix; outbreak; threshold.

MeSH terms

Basic Reproduction Number*
Democratic Republic of the Congo / epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks*
Ebolavirus / isolation & purification*
Ebolavirus / pathogenicity
Epidemics
Health Personnel / statistics & numerical data*
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / diagnosis*
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / epidemiology
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / transmission*
Humans
Incidence
Models, Statistical
Models, Theoretical
Vaccination

Grants and funding

K25 CA181503/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United States