Hypolimnetic oxygen depletion in lakes is a widespread problem and is mainly controlled by the sediment oxygen uptake (SOU) and flux of reduced substances out of the sediments (Fred). Especially in eutrophic lakes, Fred may constitute a major fraction of the areal hypolimnetic mineralization rate, but its size and source is often poorly understood. Using a diagenetic reaction-transport model supported by a large data set of sediment porewater concentrations, bulk sediment core data and lake monitoring data, the behavior of Fred was simulated in eutrophic Lake Baldegg. Transient boundary conditions for the gross sedimentation of total organic carbon and for hypolimnetic O2 concentrations were applied to simulate the eutrophication and re-oligotrophication history of the lake. According to the model, Fred is dominated by methanogenesis, where up to70% to the total CH4 is produced from sediments older than 20 years deposited during the time of permanent anoxia between 1890 and 1982. An implementation of simplified seasonal variations of the upper boundary conditions showed that their consideration is not necessary for the assessment of annual average fluxes in long-term simulations. Four lake management scenarios were then implemented to investigate the future development of Fred and SOU until 2050 under different boundary conditions. A comparison of three trophic scenarios showed that further reduction of the lake productivity to at least a mesotrophic state is required to significantly decrease Fred and SOU from the present state. Conversely, a termination of artificial aeration at the present trophic state would result in high rates of organic matter deposition and a long-term increase of Fred from the sediments of Lake Baldegg.