The present study aimed to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram for stage IE and IIE extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) of the upper aerodigestive tract by using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database. A total of 396 patients with ENKTCL were included in the present study and were divided into training (n=280) and validation (n=116) cohorts. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model were used to evaluate the prognostic value of multiple clinical parameters on overall survival. The C-index and calibration curves were both used to determine the predictive and discriminatory capacities of the nomogram. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, primary site, radiation therapy and stage were independent prognostic factors. Nomograms with a C-index of 0.717 in the training cohort and a C-index of 0.737 in the validation cohort were developed. The calibration curves reported excellent consistency between predicted and real survival in patients with ENKTCL. In addition, a subgroup analysis of 264 patients who were receiving chemotherapy revealed that based on chemotherapy, supplementation with radiation therapy was significantly beneficial to patients survival. In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that this prognostic model may serve as a novel tool for improving prediction of survival outcomes and may therefore be used in clinical applications.
Keywords: early-stage lymphoma; extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma; prognostic nomogram; upper aerodigestive tract lymphoma.