A novel comprehensive risk assessment method for sudden water accidents in the Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project (China)

Yilin Yang; Xiaohui Lei; Yan Long; Yu Tian; Yunhui Zhang; Ye Yao; Xiaoshu Hou; Mengshuang Shi; Pengwen Wang; Conglin Zhang; Hao Wang; Jin Quan

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134167

A novel comprehensive risk assessment method for sudden water accidents in the Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project (China)

Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jan 1:698:134167. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134167. Epub 2019 Aug 31.

Authors

Yilin Yang¹, Xiaohui Lei², Yan Long³, Yu Tian², Yunhui Zhang², Ye Yao⁴, Xiaoshu Hou⁵, Mengshuang Shi⁵, Pengwen Wang⁴, Conglin Zhang⁶, Hao Wang¹, Jin Quan²

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China; China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China.
² China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China.
³ School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei Province 056002, China; China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China. Electronic address: hebeilongyan@163.com.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China.
⁵ School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084, China.
⁶ Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100038, China.

PMID: 31499351
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134167

Abstract

The Middle Route of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China consists of a long open canal and complex hydraulic structures. It provides drinking water for Beijing, Shijiazhuang, and other cities under extremely strict water quality requirements. In the recent decades, water pollution accidents have frequently occurred in water transfer projects. Scientific and effective risk assessment is needed to assess the impact on the overall emergency management, which should be considered to incorporate social, economic, and environmental issues in the timely response to and management of emergencies. In this study, we combine the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and coordinated development degree model into a comprehensive risk assessment tool. This new approach was tested on an emergency drilling simulation related to a sudden MRP water pollution accident in 2016. Based on the combined integration weight ranking, "water delivery status," "pollution accident characteristics," "town size," and "public satisfaction" play prominent roles in the risk assessment. Especially, "town size" is identified as the most important influent factor. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response model index system and comprehensive risk assessment method can be used to evaluate accidents more scientifically and versatile, which helps managers or experts to make faster and more efficient decisions.

Keywords: Coordinated development degree model; DPSIR model; Emergency drilling; Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; Risk assessment; Sudden water accidents.