The association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of mumps in Wuhan, China: A time-series study

Abstract

Background: Previous studies have estimated the association between meteorological factors and mumps outbreaks without assessing the influence of air pollution. In this research, we explored the effects of short-term exposure to air pollution on the incidence of mumps.

Methods: Our time-series analysis was conducted using data collected in Wuhan, China from 2015 to 2017. Daily number of mumps cases was obtained from Disease Reporting System in Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Data on air pollution was obtained from 10 national air quality monitoring stations, including nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ground-level ozone (O₃), particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM₁₀), and particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5). Daily meteorological data including temperature and relative humidity were obtained from Hubei Meteorological Bureau. We performed a Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAM) to explore the association between the incidence of mumps and exposure to air pollution.

Results: We observed that the effects of air pollutants were statistically significant mainly in two periods, lag 0 to lag 5 and lag 20 to lag 25, with the strongest effects appearing at lag 2 and lag 23. The cumulative effects were stronger than single-day lag effects. The stratified analysis showed the effect of pollutants during the hot season was stronger than that during the cold season, especially for NO₂ and SO₂.

Conclusions: We found that exposure to NO₂ and SO₂ was significantly associated with higher risk of developing mumps. Our findings could help deepen the understanding of how air pollution exposure affects the incidence of mumps.

Keywords: Air pollution; Hot season; Infectious disease; Mumps; NO(2); SO(2).