Purpose: While several studies reported the association between morphokinetic parameters and implantation, few predictive models were developed to predict implantation after day 5 embryo transfer, generally without external validation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the respective performance of 2 commercially available morphokinetic-based models (KIDScore™ Day 5 versions 1 and 2) for the prediction of implantation and live birth after day 5 single blastocyst transfer.
Methods: This monocentric retrospective study was conducted on 210 ICSI cycles with single day 5 embryo transfer performed with a time-lapse imaging (TLI) system between 2013 and 2016. The association between both KIDScore™ and the observed implantation and live birth rates was calculated, as well as the agreement between embryologist's choice for transfer and embryo ranking by the models.
Results: Implantation and live birth rate were both 35.7%. A significant positive correlation was found between both models and implantation rate (r = 0.96 and r = 0.90, p = 0.01) respectively. Both models had statistically significant but limited predictive power for implantation (AUC 0.60). There was a fair agreement between the embryologists' choice and both models (78% and 61% respectively), with minor differences in case of discrepancies.
Conclusions: KIDScore™ Day 5 predictive models are significantly associated with implantation rates after day 5 single blastocyst transfer. However, their predictive performance remains perfectible. The use of these predictive models holds promises as decision-making tools to help the embryologist select the best embryo, ultimately facilitating the implementation of SET policy. However, embryologists' expertise remains absolutely necessary to make the final decision.
Keywords: Blastocyst; IVF; Implantation; Prediction model; Time-lapse.