Background: Accurate prediction of Alzheimer's disease (AD) cognitive and functional outcomes in clinical research requires consistent underlying rates of change over time.
Objective: To examine cohort effects in AD progression rate over five years of follow-up using a clinical database of probable AD patients.
Methods: Baseline characteristics of three cohorts enrolled from 1995-1999, 2000-2004, and 2005-2009 were compared using ANOVA and chi-square tests. Differences in 5-year decline on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) and Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), the Lawton and Brody Physical Self-maintenance Scale (PSMS), and Activities of Daily Living Scale (ADL) were assessed using longitudinal mixed effects regression, adjusting for age, sex, education, and other relevant clinical characteristics.
Results: Cohorts 1 (n = 287), 2 (n = 257), and 3 (n = 374) did not differ on age, race, APOE genotype, or cognitive and functional measures. Educational attainment increased over time (13.4, 14.1, and 14.5 years, respectively, p < 0.001). Anti-dementia drug use at baseline was less common in Cohort 1 (32.2% versus 65.0%, and 66.8%, p < 0.001). The rate of decline in MMSE and CDR-SB did not differ across cohorts. ADAS-Cog scores for Cohort 2 declined more slowly than Cohort 3 (Btime ×cohort2 = -0.91 ± 0.35, p = 0.009), whereas Cohort 1 did not differ from cohort 3 (reference). Cohorts 1 and 2 differed from Cohort 3 in progression rate on the PSMS, but not the IADL.
Conclusions: There were no consistent temporal trends in progression rates over time. Longitudinal data over 15-20 years may be confidently pooled for outcomes analysis, but unexplained variability in rate of decline on some measures may occur.
Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease; cognitive decline; cohort effects; disease progression.