The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps based on Boosted regression tree model

Dandan Zhang; Yuming Guo; Shannon Rutherford; Chang Qi; Xu Wang; Peizhu Wang; Zhaolei Zheng; Qing Xu; Xiujun Li

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133758

The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps based on Boosted regression tree model

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Dec 10:695:133758. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133758. Epub 2019 Aug 3.

Authors

Dandan Zhang¹, Yuming Guo², Shannon Rutherford³, Chang Qi¹, Xu Wang¹, Peizhu Wang¹, Zhaolei Zheng¹, Qing Xu⁴, Xiujun Li⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
² Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
³ School of Medicine, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia.
⁴ Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China.
⁵ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China. Electronic address: xjli@sdu.edu.cn.

PMID: 31422317
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133758

Abstract

Background: Mumps remains a major global public health problem. Many studies have explored the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps, few have comprehensively explored such associations considering nonlinear relationship, delayed effects and collinearity in order to more accurately estimate them. This study aims to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps in consideration of nonlinearity, delayed effects and collinearity.

Methods: We collected daily reported mumps cases and meteorological data for Jining City, Shandong Province, China from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016. By building a Boosted regression tree model (BRT) for each day from lag 0days to the maximum lag time, the optimal lag time was selected and the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps was explored for this lag time.

Results: From 2007 to 2016, a total of 15,064 cases of mumps were reported in Jining, with a sex ratio of 2.11:1. Cases were most prevalent in 5-9-year-olds (42.15%) followed by 10-14-year-olds (24.72%). The optimal lag time identified was 10days and the three meteorological factors that contributed the most to the risk of mumps were daily mean temperature, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean sunshine duration. Their relative contribution rates were 24.4%, 19.9% and 18.3%, respectively. The mean temperature and sunshine duration relationships approximated a U-shaped effect on the risk of mumps, with estimated thresholds of 5.5°C and 9.5h, respectively. The effect of relative humidity on mumps increased slightly and then decreased rapidly, with a threshold of 64%.

Conclusions: Our study indicates that daily mean temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration were three significant meteorological factors associated with the incidence of mumps in Jining, China. Understanding the shape of relationships and their thresholds are critical for establishing early warning systems which are important tools in the prevention and control of mumps.

Keywords: Boosted regression tree model; Collinearity; Meteorological factors; Mumps; Nonlinear.

MeSH terms

China / epidemiology
Environmental Exposure / statistics & numerical data*
Humans
Incidence
Meteorological Concepts*
Mumps / epidemiology*