Diagnostic accuracy of Doppler ultrasound in predicting perinatal outcome in pregnancies at term: A prospective longitudinal study

Abstract

Introduction: To explore the strength of association and the diagnostic accuracy of umbilical (UA), middle cerebral (MCA), uterine arteries pulsatility index (PI) and the cerebroplacental ratio in predicting an adverse outcome when applied to singleton pregnancies at term.

Material and methods: Prospective study carried out in a dedicated research ultrasound clinic. Attended clinicians were blinded to Doppler findings. Inclusion criteria were consecutive singleton pregnancies between 36⁺⁰ and 37⁺⁶ weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was a composite score of adverse perinatal outcome. Logistic regression and ROC curve analyses were used to analyze the data.

Results: In all, 600 consecutive singleton pregnancies from 36 weeks of gestation were included in the study. Mean MCA PI (1.1 ± 0.2 vs 1.5 ± 0.4, P < 0.001) and cerebroplacental ratio (1.4 ± 0.4 vs 1.9 ± 0.6, P < 0.001) were lower, whereas uterine arteries PI (0.8 ±0.2 vs 0.7 ±0.3, P = 0.001) was higher in pregnancies experiencing than in those not experiencing composite adverse outcome. Conversely, there was no difference in either UA PI (P = 0.399) or estimated fetal weight centile (P = 0.712) between the two groups, but AC centile was lower in fetuses experiencing composite adverse outcome (45.4 vs 53.2, P = 0.040). At logistic regression analysis, MCA PI (odds ratio [OR] 0.1, 95% CI 0.01-.2, P = 0.001), uterine arteries PI (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6, P = 0.001), abdominal circumference centile (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.1-1.4, P = 0.001) and gestational age at birth (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1, P = 0.004) were independently associated with composite adverse outcome. Despite this, the diagnostic accuracy of Doppler in predicting adverse pregnancy outcome at term was poor.

Conclusions: MCA PI and cerebroplacental ratio are associated with adverse perinatal outcome at term. However, their predictive accuracy for perinatal compromise is poor, and thus their use as standalone screening test for adverse perinatal outcome in singleton pregnancies at term is not supported.

Keywords: Doppler; cerebroplacental ratio; middle cerebral artery; outcome pregnancies at term; perinatal outcome; umbilical artery.