Introduction: Substandard and falsified medications pose significant risks to global health. Nearly one in five antimalarials circulating in low- and middle-income countries are substandard or falsified. We assessed the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified antimalarials on children under five in Nigeria, where malaria is endemic and poor-quality medications are commonplace.
Methods: We developed a dynamic agent-based SAFARI (Substandard and Falsified Antimalarial Research Impact) model to capture the impact of antimalarial use in Nigeria. The model simulated children with background characteristics, malaria infections, patient care-seeking, disease progression, treatment outcomes, and incurred costs. Using scenario analyses, we simulated the impact of substandard and falsified medicines, antimalarial resistance, as well as possible interventions to improve the quality of treatment, reduce stock-outs, and educate caregivers about antimalarial quality.
Results: We estimated that poor quality antimalarials are responsible for 12,300 deaths and $892 million ($890-$893 million) in costs annually in Nigeria. If antimalarial resistance develops, we simulated that current costs of malaria could increase by $839 million (11% increase, $837-$841 million). The northern regions of Nigeria have a greater burden as compared to the southern regions, with 9,700 deaths and $698 million ($697-$700 million) in total economic losses annually due to substandard and falsified antimalarials. Furthermore, our scenario analyses demonstrated that possible interventions-such as removing stock-outs in all facilities ($1.11 billion), having only ACTs available for treatment ($594 million), and 20% more patients seeking care ($469 million)-can save hundreds of millions in costs annually in Nigeria.
Conclusions: The results highlight the significant health and economic burden of poor quality antimalarials in Nigeria, and the impact of potential interventions to counter them. In order to reduce the burden of malaria and prevent antimalarials from developing resistance, policymakers and donors must understand the problem and implement interventions to reduce the impact of ineffective and harmful antimalarials.