Background: The European brown hare (Lepus europaeus) typically resides in open habitats in agriculturally dominated landscapes in Europe. Over recent decades, a widely observed population decline occurred, which was attributed to agricultural intensification. However, with political incentives for specific crops, especially maize for energy production, the habitat went through massive changes. Thus, there is the need to identify parameters that characterize a suitable habitat for the brown hare in today's agricultural lands.
Results: We modelled European brown hare densities spatially and temporally explicit over 10 years (2005-2014) across an entire federal state. The generalized additive mixed model confirms a constant decline of the European brown hare population in Lower Saxony. Municipalities with a high proportion of grassland and precipitation totaling up to 900 mm are more favored. Woodland showed an approximately linear negative effect. The most important agricultural crop groups such as winter grains and winter oilseed rape showed overall positive effects on hare densities. However, the effect of maize was unimodal, with a positive effect of medium proportions, but a negative effect of very high proportions. The effect of sugar beet was relatively weak but negative. Brown hares were also more abundant in municipalities with a higher density of vixen with litter and municipalities with a high proportion of wildflower strips showed higher brown hare abundance.
Conclusion: Lower Saxony is a diverse federal state with grassland dominated areas in the northwest, more woodland in the east, but intensive arable land in most remaining areas. The European brown hare-a species with a wide ecological potency-shows preferences to both grassland and the most typical arable crop groups such as winter grains and winter oilseed rape. The substantial increase in maize production within the time frame was likely unfavourable and may be one reason for the decline. Nonetheless, political tools such as the agri-environmental scheme "wildflower strips" were beneficial for the brown hare abundance and may be an option to reverse the decline seen over the 10 years.
Keywords: Citizen science; Habitat modelling; Hunting bags; IACS data; Land use data; Monitoring; Small game; Wildlife estimation.