Objectives: Colpocleisis is a surgical treatment of pelvic organ prolapse for elderly women who are no longer sexually active. The risk calculator of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) predicts perioperative complications. We aim to determine if the NSQIP calculated risk correlates with true perioperative complications in women 80 years or older undergoing colpocleisis.
Methods: Octogenarian women who underwent colpocleisis at our institution from 2007 to 2017 were included in this retrospective chart review. Medical comorbidities were entered into ACS NSQIP calculator, and the calculated risk was compared with actual complications.
Results: One hundred twenty-six octogenarians were included in the analysis. The true complication rate was higher than predicted by NSQIP (28.6% [36/126] vs 4.3% (SD, ±1.1%), which we attribute to our relatively high detection rate of urinary tract infection (32/36). Four patients (3.2%) had serious complications (pulmonary embolus, deep vein thrombosis, sepsis, and reintubation). In only 57% of cases, NSQIP risk calculation was concordant with true complication, showing significant departure from correct classification (P < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity of the NSQIP calculator were 66.7% and 53.3%, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed higher-than-predicted incidence of complications for patients requiring antiplatelet medication (Plavix or aspirin >81 mg vs none; odds ratio, 4.84, 95% confidence interval, 1.72-13.60; P = 0.002) and a diagnosis of hypertension (odds ratio, 4.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-13.72; P = 0.016).
Conclusion: Serious complication rates are low in octogenarians undergoing colpocleisis. The ACS NSQIP risk calculator does not strongly correlate with actual complications. Further refinement and evolvement of the database may improve its predictive value.
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