Successful validation of a larval dispersal model using genetic parentage data

PLoS Biol. 2019 Jul 12;17(7):e3000380. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000380. eCollection 2019 Jul.

Abstract

Larval dispersal is a critically important yet enigmatic process in marine ecology, evolution, and conservation. Determining the distance and direction that tiny larvae travel in the open ocean continues to be a challenge. Our current understanding of larval dispersal patterns at management-relevant scales is principally and separately informed by genetic parentage data and biological-oceanographic (biophysical) models. Parentage datasets provide clear evidence of individual larval dispersal events, but their findings are spatially and temporally limited. Biophysical models offer a more complete picture of dispersal patterns at regional scales but are of uncertain accuracy. Here, we develop statistical techniques that integrate these two important sources of information on larval dispersal. We then apply these methods to an extensive genetic parentage dataset to successfully validate a high-resolution biophysical model for the economically important reef fish species Plectropomus maculatus in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Our results demonstrate that biophysical models can provide accurate descriptions of larval dispersal at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to management. They also show that genetic parentage datasets provide enough statistical power to exclude poor biophysical models. Biophysical models that included species-specific larval behaviour provided markedly better fits to the parentage data than assuming passive behaviour, but incorrect behavioural assumptions led to worse predictions than ignoring behaviour altogether. Our approach capitalises on the complementary strengths of genetic parentage datasets and high-resolution biophysical models to produce an accurate picture of larval dispersal patterns at regional scales. The results provide essential empirical support for the use of accurately parameterised biophysical larval dispersal models in marine spatial planning and management.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animal Distribution / physiology*
  • Animals
  • Conservation of Natural Resources / methods*
  • Coral Reefs*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Fishes / physiology
  • Geography
  • Larva / physiology
  • Marine Biology / methods
  • Models, Biological*
  • Oceans and Seas
  • Perciformes / physiology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Reproducibility of Results

Grants and funding

DHW, GPJ, and HBH received funding from Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Grant LP100200561 (https://www.arc.gov.au/). MB received funding from Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship FT170100274 (https://www.arc.gov.au/). HBH was funded by Australian Research Council (ARC) DECRA DE160101141 (https://www.arc.gov.au/). DHW, MB, GPJ, HBH, and SC received funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (https://www.arc.gov.au/). GPJ, DHW, HBH, JML, LBM, and SC received funding from the Australian Department of Environment and Energy, through the Marine and Tropical Science Research Facility, National Environmental Research Program, and National Environmental Science Program (https://www.environment.gov.au/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.