Analysis of Malaria Control Measures' Effectiveness Using Multistage Vector Model

Bull Math Biol. 2019 Nov;81(11):4366-4411. doi: 10.1007/s11538-019-00637-6. Epub 2019 Jul 8.

Abstract

We analyze an epidemiological model to evaluate the effectiveness of multiple means of control in malaria-endemic areas. The mathematical model consists of a system of several ordinary differential equations and is based on a multi-compartment representation of the system. The model takes into account the multiple resting-questing stages undergone by adult female mosquitoes during the period in which they function as disease vectors. We compute the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that if [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) on the nonnegative orthant. If [Formula: see text], the system admits a unique endemic equilibrium (EE) that is GAS. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the dependence of [Formula: see text] and the EE on parameters related to control measures, such as killing effectiveness and bite prevention. Finally, we discuss the implications for a comprehensive, cost-effective strategy for malaria control.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Control strategies; Epidemiological model; Global asymptotic stability; Lyapunov function; Malaria; Sensitivity analysis.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Anopheles / parasitology
  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data
  • Computer Simulation
  • Endemic Diseases / prevention & control
  • Endemic Diseases / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Host-Parasite Interactions
  • Humans
  • Malaria / epidemiology
  • Malaria / prevention & control*
  • Malaria / transmission
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Mosquito Control / methods*
  • Mosquito Control / statistics & numerical data
  • Mosquito Vectors* / parasitology