A comparison of longitudinal modelling approaches: Alcohol and cannabis use from adolescence to young adulthood

C J Greenwood; G J Youssef; K S Betts; P Letcher; J Mcintosh; E Spry; D M Hutchinson; J A Macdonald; L J Hagg; A Sanson; J W Toumbourou; C A Olsson

doi:10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.05.001

A comparison of longitudinal modelling approaches: Alcohol and cannabis use from adolescence to young adulthood

Drug Alcohol Depend. 2019 Aug 1:201:58-64. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.05.001. Epub 2019 May 29.

Authors

C J Greenwood¹, G J Youssef², K S Betts³, P Letcher⁴, J Mcintosh², E Spry², D M Hutchinson⁵, J A Macdonald⁶, L J Hagg⁷, A Sanson⁴, J W Toumbourou⁷, C A Olsson⁶

Affiliations

¹ Deakin University, Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Geelong, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Centre for Adolescent Health, Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: christopher.greenwood@deakin.edu.au.
² Deakin University, Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Geelong, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Centre for Adolescent Health, Melbourne, Australia.
³ The University of Queensland, Institute for Social Science Research, Office 403, Cycad Building, Long Pocket Precent, 4068, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
⁴ University of Melbourne, Department of Paediatrics, Royal Children's Hospital, Australia.
⁵ Deakin University, Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Geelong, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Centre for Adolescent Health, Melbourne, Australia; University of Melbourne, Department of Paediatrics, Royal Children's Hospital, Australia; University of New South Wales, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine, Australia; Macquarie University, Centre for Emotional Health, Department of Psychology, Australia.
⁶ Deakin University, Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Geelong, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Centre for Adolescent Health, Melbourne, Australia; University of Melbourne, Department of Paediatrics, Royal Children's Hospital, Australia.
⁷ Deakin University, Centre for Social and Early Emotional Development, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health, Geelong, Australia.

PMID: 31195345
DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2019.05.001

Abstract

Background: Modelling trajectories of substance use over time is complex and requires judicious choices from a number of modelling approaches. In this study we examine the relative strengths and weakness of latent curve models (LCM), growth mixture modelling (GMM), and latent class growth analysis (LCGA).

Design: Data were drawn from the Australian Temperament Project, a 36-year-old community-based longitudinal study that has followed a sample of young Australians from infancy to adulthood across 16 waves of follow-up since 1983. Models were fitted on past month alcohol use (n = 1468) and cannabis use (n = 549) across six waves of data collected from age 13-14 to 27-28 years.

Findings: Of the three model types, GMMs were the best fit. However, these models were limited given the variance of numerous growth parameters had to be constrained to zero. Additionally, both the GMM and LCGA solutions had low entropy. The negative binomial LCMs provided a relatively well-fitting solution with fewer drawbacks in terms of growth parameter estimation and entropy issues. In all cases, model fit was enhanced when using a negative binomial distribution.

Conclusions: Substance use researchers would benefit from adopting a complimentary framework by exploring both LCMs and mixture approaches, in light of the relative strengths and weaknesses as identified. Additionally, the distribution of data should inform modelling decisions.

Keywords: Growth mixture model; Latent class growth analysis; Latent curve model; Negative binomial; Substance use.

Publication types

Comparative Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Adult
Alcohol Drinking / epidemiology*
Australia / epidemiology
Female
Humans
Latent Class Analysis
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Marijuana Use / epidemiology*
Models, Statistical*
Reproducibility of Results
Substance-Related Disorders / epidemiology*
Young Adult