Offender rehabilitation is typically thought to have been successful if a higher proportion of a sample of treatment completers avoids being reconvicted for an offence than a comparison sample. Yet, this type of evaluation design tells us little about what brings about these outcomes. In this study, we test whether change in dynamic risk factors during treatment is a recidivism-reducing mechanism in a sample of high-risk offenders. We also examine the extent to which change after treatment-in the period of reentry from prison to the community-mediates this relationship. We found that although individuals made statistically significant change during treatment, this change was not significantly related to recidivism. We did, however, find tentative support for an indirect relationship between treatment change and recidivism, through change that occurred during reentry. These findings signal the importance of the reentry period for understanding how change in treatment is related to long-term outcomes.
Keywords: Violence Risk Scale; dynamic risk factors; high-risk offenders; offender rehabilitation; protective factors; reentry; risk assessment; treatment change.