Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities

Sci Adv. 2019 Jun 5;5(6):eaau4373. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau4373. eCollection 2019 Jun.

Abstract

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Cities
  • Climate Change
  • Global Warming*
  • Greenhouse Gases / analysis
  • Heat Stress Disorders / etiology
  • Heat Stress Disorders / mortality*
  • Hot Temperature / adverse effects*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • United States

Substances

  • Greenhouse Gases