Blast from the past: Perioperative use of the Maruyama computer program for prediction of lymph node involvement in the surgical treatment of gastric cancer following neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Abstract

Background: Surgical quality assurance is a key element of gastric cancer treatment. The Maruyama Computer Program (MCP) allows to predict lymph node involvement in stations no. 1-16. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the accuracy of the MCP predictions in GC patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (nCTH) followed by gastrectomy with adequate lymphadenectomy.

Methods: 101 patients who underwent preoperative nCTH followed by D2 gastrectomy with curative intent were analysed. The response to nCTH was measured using the tumour regression grade system.

Results: Test sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of the MCP were 92%, 33%, 41%, 89%, and 53%, respectively. In patients with response to nCTH, number of false positive (FP) results was significantly higher than in patients who did not respond to nCTH both in the N1 (56.3% vs 28.9%, p < 0.0001) and in the N2 (59% vs 41%, p < 0.0001) trier. The risk for FP results was 6 times higher in N1 (OR = 6.50, 95%CI: 3.91-10.82,; p < 0.0001) and N2 (OR = 5.84, 95%CI: 2.85-11.96; p < 0.0001) triers. In patients with intestinal type GC, the risk for FP results was 4 times higher than in other histologic types of GC in both N1 (OR = 4.23, 95%CI: 2.58-6.95; p < 0.0001) and N2 (OR = 4.23, 95%CI: 2.02-9.62; p = 0.0002) triers.

Conclusions: MCP predictions in the GC patients treated with nCTH have low specificity due to significantly high number of FP results. Noticeably low accuracy level of predictions indicate a need for new prediction models, based on Laurén classification, since it may provide some information on expected regression grade.

Keywords: Gastric cancer; Maruyama computer program; Neoadjuvant chemotherapy; Surgical quality assurance; WinEstimate 2.5.