Collagen plays a key role in normal and malignant tissue homeostasis. While the prognostic significance of collagen fiber remodeling in invasive breast cancer has been studied, its role in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains poorly defined. Using image analysis, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the geometric characteristics of collagen surrounding DCIS. A large well-characterized cohort of DCIS comprising pure DCIS (n = 610) and DCIS coexisting with invasive carcinoma (n = 180) were histochemically stained for collagen using picrosirius red. ImageJ software was used to assess collagen density, degree of collagen fiber dispersion and directionality in relation to DCIS ducts' boundary. We developed a collagen prognostic index and evaluated its prognostic significance. A poor index was observed in 24% of the pure DCIS and was associated with determinants of high-risk DCIS including higher nuclear grade, comedo type necrosis, hormonal receptor negativity, HER2 positivity and high proliferation index. High collagen prognostic index was associated with the collagen remodeling protein prolyl-4-hydroxlase alpha subunit 2 and the hypoxia-related protein hypoxia inducible factor 1α. DCIS coexisting with invasive breast cancer had a higher collagen prognostic index than pure DCIS ( p < 0.0001). High index was an independent poor prognostic factor for DCIS recurrence for all recurrences (HR = 2.3, p = 0.005) and just invasive recurrences (HR = 3.4, p = 0.003). Interaction between collagen prognostic index and radiotherapy showed that the index was associated with poor outcome even with adjuvant radiotherapy ( p = 0.0001). Collagen reorganization around DCIS is associated with poor outcome and provides a potential predictor for disease progression and resistance to radiotherapy. Mechanistic studies are warranted to decipher the underlying mechanisms.