Rationale: Despite effective treatments, a large proportion of patients with asthma do not achieve sustained asthma control. The "preventable" burden associated with lack of proper control is likely taking a high toll at the personal and population level.Objectives: We predicted the future excess health and economic burden associated with uncontrolled asthma among American adolescents and adults for the next 20 years.Methods: We built a probabilistic model that linked state-specific estimates of population growth, aging, asthma prevalence, and asthma control levels. We conducted several meta-analyses to estimate the adjusted differences in healthcare resource use, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and productivity loss across control levels. We projected, nationally and at the state level, total direct and indirect (due to productivity loss) costs (in 2018 dollars) and QALYs lost because of uncontrolled asthma from 2019 to 2038.Measurements and Main Results: Total 20-year direct costs associated with uncontrolled asthma are estimated to be $300.6 billion (95% confidence interval [CI], $190.1 billion-411.1 billion). When indirect costs are added, total economic burden will be $963.5 billion (95% CI, $664.1 billion-1,262.9 billion). American adolescents and adults will lose an estimated 15.46 million (95% CI, 12.77 million-18.14 million) QALYs over this period because of uncontrolled asthma. Across states, the average 20-year per capita costs due to uncontrolled asthma ranged from $2,209 (Arkansas) to $6,132 (Connecticut).Conclusions: The burden of uncontrolled asthma is substantial and will continue to grow. Given that a substantial fraction of this burden is preventable, better adherence to evidence-informed asthma management strategies by care providers and patients has the potential to substantially reduce costs and improve quality of life.
Keywords: asthma; asthma control; costs; forecasting; quality-adjusted life years.