A coupled multiscale model to guide malaria control and elimination

Abstract

In this paper, we share with the biomathematics community a new coupled multiscale model which has the potential to inform policy and guide malaria control and elimination. The formulation of this multiscale model is based on integrating four submodels which are: (i) a sub-model for the mosquito-to-human transmission of malaria parasite, (ii) a sub-model for the human-to-mosquito transmission of malaria parasite, (iii) a within-mosquito malaria parasite population dynamics sub-model and (iv) a within-human malaria parasite population dynamics sub-model. The integration of the four submodels is achieved by assuming that the transmission parameters of the sub-model for the mosquito-to-human transmission of malaria at the epidemiological scale are functions of the dependent variables of the within-mosquito sporozoite population dynamics while the transmission parameters of the sub-model for the human-to-mosquito transmission of malaria are functions of the dependent variables of the within-human gametocyte population dynamics. This establishes a unidirectionally coupled multiscale model where the within-human and within-mosquito submodels are unidirectionally coupled to the human-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human submodels. A fast and slow time scale analysis is performed on this system. The result is a simple multiscale model which describes the mechanics of malaria transmission in terms of the major components of the complete malaria parasite life-cycle. This multiscale modelling approach may be found useful in guiding malaria control and elimination.

Keywords: Community pathogen load; Comparative effectiveness of malaria health interventions; Linking within-host scale and between-host scale; Multiscale model of malaria; Multiscale modelling of infectious diseases.