Many longitudinal studies have investigated whether self-esteem predicts depressive symptoms (vulnerability model) or the other way around (scar model) in adolescents. The most common method of analysis has been the Cross-lagged Panel Model (CLPM). The CLPM does not separate between-person effects from within-person effects, making it unclear whether the results from previous studies actually reflect the within-person effects, or whether they reflect differences between people. We investigated the associations between self-esteem and depressive symptoms at the within-person level, using Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models (RI-CLPM). To get an impression of the magnitude of possible differences between the RI-CLPM and CLPM, we compared the results of both models. We used data from three longitudinal adolescent samples (age range 7-18; Study 1: N=1,948; Study 2: N=1,455; Study 3: N=316). Intervals between the measurements were 1-1.5 years. Single-paper meta-analyses showed support for small within-person associations from self-esteem to depressive symptoms, but not the other way around, thus only providing some support for the vulnerability model. The cross-lagged associations in the aggregated RI-CLPM and CLPM showed similar effect sizes. Overall, our results show that over 1-1.5 year time intervals, low self-esteem may negatively influence depressive symptoms over time within adolescents, but only weakly so.
Keywords: Self-esteem; depression; longitudinal data; random intercept cross-lagged panel model; within-person effects.