Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin

Qichun Yang; Xuesong Zhang; James E Almendinger; Maoyi Huang; Xingyuan Chen; Guoyong Leng; Yuyu Zhou; Kaiguang Zhao; Ghassem R Asrar; Xia Li

doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129

Climate change will pose challenges to water quality management in the st. Croix River basin

Environ Pollut. 2019 Aug:251:302-311. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129. Epub 2019 May 7.

Authors

Qichun Yang¹, Xuesong Zhang², James E Almendinger³, Maoyi Huang⁴, Xingyuan Chen⁵, Guoyong Leng⁴, Yuyu Zhou⁶, Kaiguang Zhao⁷, Ghassem R Asrar¹, Xia Li⁸

Affiliations

¹ Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, 20740, USA.
² Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, 20740, USA; Earth System Sciences Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, USA. Electronic address: xuesong.zhang@pnnl.gov.
³ St. Croix Watershed Research Station, Science Museum of Minnesota, 16910 152nd St. N, Marine on St. Croix, MN, 55082, USA.
⁴ Earth System Analysis and Modeling Group, Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USA.
⁵ Atmospheric Measurement & Data Sciences Group, Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USA.
⁶ Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, 50011, USA.
⁷ School of Environment & Natural Resources, The Ohio State University, Wooster, OH, 44691, USA.
⁸ Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA.

PMID: 31091494
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.04.129

Abstract

Responses of streamflow and nutrient export to changing climate conditions should be investigated for effective water quality management and pollution control. Using downscaled climate projections and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we projected future streamflow, sediment export, and riverine nutrient export in the St. Croix River Basin (SCRB) during 2020-2099. Results show substantial increases in riverine water, sediment, and nutrient load under future climate conditions, particularly under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Intensified water cycling and enhanced nutrient export will pose challenges to water quality management and affect multiple Best Management Practices (BMPs) efforts, which are aimed at reducing nutrient loads in SCRB. In addition to the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial hydrology, our analyses demonstrate significant reductions in ET under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Changes in plant physiology induced by climate change may markedly affect water cycling and associated sediment and nutrient export. Results of this study highlight the importance of examining climate change impacts on water and nutrient delivery for effective watershed management.

Keywords: Climate change; Non-point source pollution; Nutrient export; Sediment load; Streamflow.

MeSH terms

Climate Change*
Conservation of Water Resources / trends*
Hydrodynamics
Minnesota
Models, Theoretical*
Rivers / chemistry*
Water Cycle
Water Pollutants / analysis*
Water Quality / standards*
Wisconsin

Substances

Water Pollutants