Identification and analysis of driving factors of CO2 emissions from economic growth in Pakistan

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jul;26(19):19481-19489. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-05281-0. Epub 2019 May 10.

Abstract

This study applied the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to identify and discuss the main drivers of Pakistan's CO2 emissions over the period 1990-2016. The study examined the effects of five factors based on Pakistan's three main economic sectors while considering the 11 types of fuels consumed in that country. The results showed that the energy structure effect is the greatest driving force of CO2 emissions in this country, followed by scale effect and economic structure effect. Energy intensity is the main contributor to reducing Pakistan's carbon emissions throughout the study period. A comparative review at the sectoral level shows that the industrial sector for which coal is the main source of energy supply is the one that contributes the most to CO2 emissions in Pakistan. Alongside this sector is the tertiary sector, where the transport sub-sector imposes rules of conduct based on a growing Pakistani population. Meanwhile, deforestation would be the main cause of CO2 emissions from the agricultural sector in Pakistan, as energy consumption in this sector remains very low. Improving energy efficiency through the intensification of clean energy is urgently needed if Pakistan's environmental goals are to be achieved.

Keywords: CO2 emission; Economic growth; Energy intensity; LMDI; Pakistan; Population.

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture / economics
  • Carbon Dioxide / analysis*
  • Coal / economics
  • Conservation of Energy Resources / economics
  • Conservation of Energy Resources / trends*
  • Economic Development / trends*
  • Industry / economics
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Pakistan

Substances

  • Coal
  • Carbon Dioxide