The impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate policy

Nat Commun. 2019 May 7;10(1):2095. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-09499-x.

Abstract

The health co-benefits of CO2 mitigation can provide a strong incentive for climate policy through reductions in air pollutant emissions that occur when targeting shared sources. However, reducing air pollutant emissions may also have an important co-harm, as the aerosols they form produce net cooling overall. Nevertheless, aerosol impacts have not been fully incorporated into cost-benefit modeling that estimates how much the world should optimally mitigate. Here we find that when both co-benefits and co-harms are taken fully into account, optimal climate policy results in immediate net benefits globally, overturning previous findings from cost-benefit models that omit these effects. The global health benefits from climate policy could reach trillions of dollars annually, but will importantly depend on the air quality policies that nations adopt independently of climate change. Depending on how society values better health, economically optimal levels of mitigation may be consistent with a target of 2 °C or lower.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aerosols
  • Air Pollutants / adverse effects
  • Air Pollution / adverse effects
  • Air Pollution / economics
  • Air Pollution / prevention & control*
  • Climate Change
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis*
  • Environmental Policy / economics*
  • Environmental Policy / trends
  • Global Health / economics*
  • Global Health / trends
  • Greenhouse Effect / economics*
  • Humans

Substances

  • Aerosols
  • Air Pollutants