Smoke signals: monitoring illicit cigarettes and smoking behaviour in Colombia to support tobacco taxes

Abstract

Background: A street cross-sectional survey in 2016 with a representative sample of 1697 smokers in five Colombian cities was used to estimate the penetration of illicit cigarettes (PIC). The first wave was collected 3 months before a 100% increase in tobacco excise tax, and a second wave collected data 9 months after tax reform was effective. OBJECTIVE : Analyse changes after a cigarette tax increase in PIC, prices and smoking behaviour patterns for five Colombian cities (63% of the market). Smoking behaviour includes consumption intensity, presentation (stick/pack) and place of purchase. METHODS : Repeated street cross-sectional survey with smokers' self-report on smoking behaviour, last purchase information and direct observation of smokers' packs. Sampling frame: smokers, men and women, aged 12 years or older, all income levels, resident in the five cities with the highest number of smokers representing 63% of cigarette market share (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Cartagena and Cúcuta) with 1 733 316 smokers in 2013. Sample size was 1697 per wave, with confidence level 95%, margin of error 3.5% for Bogotá and Medellín and 5% for the other three cities. Smokers in second wave match first wave's location, sex and age group. Illicit cigarettes were identified based on brand, health warnings and price. RESULTS : After the tax hike, the average real price of a 20-stick pack increased by 28.2% and by 23.1% for loose cigarettes. Illicit cigarettes represented 3.4% of total cigarette consumption in 2016 and increased to 6.4% in 2017, lower than the current industry estimate of 18%. Consumption intensity decreased: the proportion of heavy smokers (more than 10 cigarettes per day) wentdown from 37% in 2016 to 26% in 2017.

Conclusion: After the tax increase, Colombia's PIC remained at low levels, and there is enough space for new tobacco tax hikes.

Keywords: illegal tobacco products; price; surveillance and monitoring; taxation.