The effect of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) on incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is controversial and few have systematically appraised the evidence. We conducted a comprehensive search of prospective studies examining these relationships that were published in PubMed, Web of Science, or EMBASE from 21 February 1989 to 21 February 2019. A total of 19 studies were included for systematic review and 10 for meta-analysis. We estimated the summarized relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) using a random (if I2 > 50%) or a fixed effects model (if I2 ≤ 50%). Although the included studies reported inconclusive results, the majority supported a protective effect of odd-chain and an adverse impact of even-chain SFAs. Meta-analysis showed that the per standard deviation (SD) increase in odd-chain SFAs was associated with a reduced risk of incident T2D (C15:0: 0.86, 0.76-0.98; C17:0: 0.76, 0.59-0.97), while a per SD increase in one even-chain SFA was associated with an increased risk of incident T2D (C14:0: 1.13, 1.09-1.18). No associations were found between other SFAs and incident T2D. In conclusion, our findings suggest an overall protective effect of odd-chain SFAs and the inconclusive impact of even- and very-long-chain SFAs on incident T2D.
Keywords: circulating; incidence; meta-analysis; prospective cohort study; saturated fatty acids; systematic review; type 2 diabetes.