Excess mortality can be caused by extreme hot weather events, which are increasing in severity and frequency in Canada due to climate change. Individual and social vulnerability factors influence the mortality risk associated with a given heat exposure. We constructed heat vulnerability indices using census data from 2006 and 2011 in Canada, developed a novel design to compare spatiotemporal changes of heat vulnerability, and identified locations that may be increasingly vulnerable to heat. The results suggest that 1) urban areas in Canada are particularly vulnerable to heat, 2) suburban areas and satellite cities around major metropolitan areas show the greatest increases in vulnerability, and 3) heat vulnerability changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of older ages and infants. Our approach is applicable to heat vulnerability analyses in other countries.
Keywords: climate change; demographic change; heat vulnerability; regional planning; spatiotemporal modelling; urbanization.