From 2012-2013, Japan experienced a major epidemic of rubella, involving a total of 12,614 rubella cases and 45 confirmed cases of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). One of the contributory factors in this outbreak may have been that the majority of adult males remained unvaccinated. To plan for a supplementary immunization program (SIP) to elevate the herd immunity level, it is critical to determine the required amount of vaccine and identify the target age groups among males for the SIP. The present study aimed to answer these policy questions, employing a mathematical model and analyzing epidemiological datasets from 2012-2013. Our model allowed us to reconstruct the age- and sex-dependent transmission patterns, and the effective reproduction number during the exponential growth phase in 2013 was estimated to be 1.5. The computed next-generation matrix indicated that vaccinating adult males aged from 20-49 years in 2013, using at least 17 million doses, was considered essential to prevent a major epidemic in the future. The proposed model also indicated that, even with smaller doses of vaccine, the SIP in adult males could lead to a substantial reduction in the incidence of rubella, as well as CRS. Importantly, the present study endorses a substantial background risk of observing another major epidemic from 2018-2019, in which cases may be dominated by adult males aged from 25-54 years, that is, our identified age groups plus a five-year time lag from 2013 to 2018.
Keywords: Epidemiology; Japan; Rubella virus; outbreak; statistical model; supplementary immunization.