Mood Prediction of Patients With Mood Disorders by Machine Learning Using Passive Digital Phenotypes Based on the Circadian Rhythm: Prospective Observational Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Virtually, all organisms on Earth have their own circadian rhythm, and humans are no exception. Circadian rhythms are associated with various human states, especially mood disorders, and disturbance of the circadian rhythm is known to be very closely related. Attempts have also been made to derive clinical implications associated with mood disorders using the vast amounts of digital log that is acquired by digital technologies develop and using computational analysis techniques.

Objective: This study was conducted to evaluate the mood state or episode, activity, sleep, light exposure, and heart rate during a period of about 2 years by acquiring various digital log data through wearable devices and smartphone apps as well as conventional clinical assessments. We investigated a mood prediction algorithm developed with machine learning using passive data phenotypes based on circadian rhythms.

Methods: We performed a prospective observational cohort study on 55 patients with mood disorders (major depressive disorder [MDD] and bipolar disorder type 1 [BD I] and 2 [BD II]) for 2 years. A smartphone app for self-recording daily mood scores and detecting light exposure (using the installed sensor) were provided. From daily worn activity trackers, digital log data of activity, sleep, and heart rate were collected. Passive digital phenotypes were processed into 130 features based on circadian rhythms, and a mood prediction algorithm was developed by random forest.

Results: The mood state prediction accuracies for the next 3 days in all patients, MDD patients, BD I patients, and BD II patients were 65%, 65%, 64%, and 65% with 0.7, 0.69, 0.67, and 0.67 area under the curve (AUC) values, respectively. The accuracies of all patients for no episode (NE), depressive episode (DE), manic episode (ME), and hypomanic episode (HME) were 85.3%, 87%, 94%, and 91.2% with 0.87, 0.87, 0.958, and 0.912 AUC values, respectively. The prediction accuracy in BD II patients was distinctively balanced as high showing 82.6%, 74.4%, and 87.5% of accuracy (with generally good sensitivity and specificity) with 0.919, 0.868, and 0.949 AUC values for NE, DE, and HME, respectively.

Conclusions: On the basis of the theoretical basis of chronobiology, this study proposed a good model for future research by developing a mood prediction algorithm using machine learning by processing and reclassifying digital log data. In addition to academic value, it is expected that this study will be of practical help to improve the prognosis of patients with mood disorders by making it possible to apply actual clinical application owing to the rapid expansion of digital technology.

Keywords: circadian rhythm; digital phenotype; machine learning; mood disorder; projections and predictions; wearable device.