Purpose This study evaluates the Occupational Rehabilitation (OR) initiatives regarding return to work (RTW) and sustaining at work following work-related injuries. This study also identifies the predictors and predicts the likelihoods of RTW and sustainability for OR users. Methods The study is conducted on the compensation claim data for people who are injured at work in the state of Victoria, Australia. The claims which commenced OR services between the first of July 2012 and the end of June 2015 are included. The claims which used original employer services (OES) have been separated from claims which used new employer services (NES). We investigated a range of predictors categorised into four groups as claimant, injury, and employment characteristics and claim management. The RTW and sustaining at work are outcomes of interest. To evaluate the predictors, we use Chi-squared test and logistic regression modelling. Also, we prioritized the predictors using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) measure and Cross-validation error. Four predictive models are developed using significant predictors for OES and NES users to predict RTW and sustainability. We examined the multicollinearity of the developed models using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Results About 75% and 60% of OES users achieved RTW and have been sustained at work respectively, whilst just approximately 30% of NES users have been placed at a new employer and 25% of them have been sustained at work. The predictors which have the most association with OES and NES outcomes are the use of psychiatric services and age groups respectively. We found that having mental conditions is as an important indicator to allocate injured workers into OES or NES initiatives. Our study shows that injured workers with mental issues do not always have lower RTW rate. They just need special consideration. Conclusion Understanding the predictors of RTW and sustainability helps to develop interventions to ensure sustained RTW. This study will assist decision makers to improve design and implementation of OR services and tailor services according to clients' needs.
Keywords: Injuries; Mental health; Occupational rehabilitation; Return to work; Workers’ compensation.