Online learning with an almost perfect expert

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Mar 26;116(13):5949-5954. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1818908116. Epub 2019 Mar 8.

Abstract

We study multiclass online learning, where a forecaster predicts a sequence of elements drawn from a finite set using the advice of n experts. Our main contributions are to analyze the scenario where the best expert makes a bounded number b of mistakes and to show that, in the low-error regime where [Formula: see text], the expected number of mistakes made by the optimal forecaster is at most [Formula: see text] We also describe an adversary strategy showing that this bound is tight and that the worst case is attained for binary prediction.

Keywords: expert advice; forecasting algorithms; lower bounds; multiclass decision making; online learning.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Forecasting
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Supervised Machine Learning*