Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a developmental disorder, affecting about 1% of the global population. Currently, the only clinical method for diagnosing ASD are standardized ASD tests which require prolonged diagnostic time and increased medical costs. Our objective was to explore the predictive power of personal characteristic data (PCD) from a large well-characterized dataset to improve upon prior diagnostic models of ASD. We extracted six personal characteristics (age, sex, handedness, and three individual measures of IQ) from 851 subjects in the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) database. ABIDE is an international collaborative project that collected data from a large number of ASD patients and typical non-ASD controls from 17 research and clinical institutes. We employed this publicly available database to test nine supervised machine learning models. We implemented a cross-validation strategy to train and test those machine learning models for classification between typical non-ASD controls and ASD patients. We assessed classification performance using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Of the nine models we tested using six personal characteristics, the neural network model performed the best with a mean AUC (SD) of 0.646 (0.005), followed by k-nearest neighbor with a mean AUC (SD) of 0.641 (0.004). This study established an optimal ASD classification performance with PCD as features. With additional discriminative features (e.g., neuroimaging), machine learning models may ultimately enable automated clinical diagnosis of autism.
Keywords: autism spectrum disorder; biostatistics; diagnosis; machine learning; support vector machine.