A novel machine learning-based approach for the risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a novel framework for risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination by integrating chemical and statistical analysis for an arid region. A standard method was applied for assessing the vulnerability of groundwater to nitrate pollution in Lenjanat plain, Iran. Nitrate concentration were collected from 102 wells of the plain and used to provide pollution occurrence and probability maps. Three machine learning models including boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM) were used for the probability of groundwater pollution occurrence. Afterwards, an ensemble modeling approach was applied for production of the groundwater pollution occurrence probability map. Validation of the models was carried out using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method (AUC); values above 80% were selected to contribute in ensembling process. Results indicated that accuracy for the three models ranged from 0.81 to 0.87, therefore all models were considered for ensemble modeling process. The resultant groundwater pollution risk (produced by vulnerability, pollution, and probability maps) indicated that the central regions of the plain have high and very high risk of nitrate pollution further confirmed by the exiting landuse map. The findings may provide very helpful information in decision making for groundwater pollution risk management especially in semi-arid regions.

Keywords: GIS; Groundwater pollution; Nitrate; Probability; Risk; Vulnerability.