Background: There is a need for risk prediction tools in caries research. This investigation aimed to estimate and evaluate a risk score for prediction of dental caries.
Materials and methods: This case-cohort study included a random sample of 177 cases (with dental caries) and 220 controls (randomly sampled from the study population at baseline), followed for 3 years. The risk ratio (RR) for each potential predictor was estimated using a logistic regression model. The level of significance was 5%.
Results: The risk model for dental caries included the predictors: "presence of bacterial plaque/calculus" (RR = 4.1), "restorations with more than 5 years" (RR = 2.3), ">8 teeth restored" (RR = 2.0), "history/active periodontitis" (RR = 1.7) and "presence of systemic condition" (RR = 1.4). The risk model discrimination (95% confidence interval) was 0.78 (0.73; 0.82) (p < 0.001, C-statistic). Patients were distributed into three risk groups based on the pre-analysis risk (54%): low risk (<half the pre-analysis risk; caries incidence = 6.8%), moderate risk (half-to-less than the pre-analysis risk; caries incidence = 20.4%) and high risk (≥the pre-analysis risk; caries incidence = 27%).
Conclusions: The present study estimated a simple risk score for prediction of dental caries retrieved from a risk algorithm with good discrimination.
Keywords: caries; epidemiology; risk; tooth.