A mathematical model for simulating hydrodynamics and pollutants migration in a tidal river network was constructed, which takes the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall runoff and non-point pollutants into consideration. Under the design hydrologic conditions of a typical hydrological year, the daily concentration change process for the control section is obtained. Aiming at the uncertainty of hydrology and water quality parameters such as flow direction, flow rate and concentration change in tidal river network area, a statistical analysis method is used to obtain the maximum allowable concentration of pollutants in the control section under the condition of the water quality standard assurance rate of. Then, a formula for calculating the pollutions emission intensity of point and non-point sources is derived. The method was applied to the pollution source control in a typical region like Taihu in China.
Keywords: control section; point and non-point source; tidal river network area; uncertainty; water environmental capacity; water quality assurance rate.